Chairman of Alliance for Economic and Research and Ethics LTD/GTE and former NACCIMA President, Hon. Dele Oye, has warned that Nigeria is trapped in a dangerous cycle of “inflation, growth without progress, and worsening economic fragility.” Presenting a public lecture titled “Inflation, Growth Without Progress, and Survival Strategies for Nigeria: Diagnosis, Policy Priorities and Practical Responses,” at the second edition of Lagos Country Club’s annual Business Forum held on Friday, Oye argued that the nation’s inflation crisis reflects both excess demand created by fiscal practices and supply-side shocks driven by structural weaknesses.

He explained that Nigeria’s inflationary spiral is not simply a monetary issue, but a compound phenomenon intensified by deficit spending, erratic exchange-rate movements, and high production costs. He cited the sharp depreciation of the naira, from about ¦ 460/$ in 2023 to an average of ¦ 1,600/$ in 2025, as a major contributor to business closures and the exit of several multinational companies.

According to him, an import-dependent economy cannot withstand unpredictable currency policies without severe consequences for producers and consumers. He further criticized ongoing infrastructure deficits, regulatory inconsistencies, and an export structure dominated by crude oil. These, he said, have weakened Nigeria’s competitiveness and prevented businesses from growing.

Oye warned that banks have increasingly preferred investing in government securities rather than supporting productive activities. Although official figures claim ¦ 75 trillion in private-sector credit, he noted that ¦ 20.4 trillion of this was invested in high-yield government instruments, rather than in manufacturing, agriculture, or SMEs. As a result, major manufacturers recorded a 20.3 percent decline in bank borrowings over the past year, while SMEs remain largely excluded from formal credit sources. “The so-called credit boom has not reached the real economy,” he stated.

The ex-NACCIMA president issued a three-stage reform blueprint that he described as realistic and necessary for restoring stability. In the short term, he urged the Federal Government and the Central Bank to adopt a binding fiscal-monetary covenant that restrains deficit financing and aligns policy; he also called for transparent, predictable foreign-exchange management, a temporary freeze on new regulatory penalties, and tighter controls on borrowing by state governments.

For the medium term, he recommended rebalancing national expenditure away from recurrent costs toward capital investments that reduce logistics burdens; streamlining government ministries and agencies to remove duplications; improving power supply, port performance, and transport corridors; and expanding blended-finance mechanisms that give SMEs access to longer-tenor, lower-cost funding.

In the long term, Oye emphasized the need for robust resource-governance structures such as stabilization funds and transparent joint-venture arrangements to help Nigeria withstand external shocks. He urged accelerated judicial and administrative reforms that would shorten contract-enforcement timelines, and full implementation of the Oronsaye Report to consolidate overlapping regulatory agencies and increase transparency.

The Chairman Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTDGTE also presented a practical “survival playbook” for households, SMEs, corporates, and investors. He advised households to diversify their assets, lock in essential expenses where possible, and build multiple income streams, including consultancy work. He encouraged SMEs to shorten cash-conversion cycles, localize inputs, strengthen financial controls, and prepare for currency and interest-rate shocks. Corporates, he said, should align their liabilities with their revenue flows, invest in automation and efficiency, and rely more on joint ventures that distribute country risk.

Investors were urged to focus on sectors such as ICT, logistics, renewable energy, housing, and agro-processing, where long-term fundamentals remain strong, while using risk-insurance tools and phased investment strategies that provide exit safeguards.

Warning of the growing hardship across the country, Oye referenced World Bank estimates showing 139 million Nigerians living in poverty, calling the current trajectory unsustainable. He argued that Nigeria has the demographic base and market potential to achieve inclusive prosperity, but only if fiscal discipline, monetary clarity, and long-term structural reforms are pursued with political realism and public accountability.

He concluded with a strong appeal for coordinated action among government institutions, private-sector leaders, and civic actors. According to him, credible and sequenced reforms are urgently needed to move the nation from superficial economic growth to genuine, broad-based development. “The time for coordinated, politically viable change is now,” he said.

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