Nigeria’s $5 Billion Swap: What It Is, What It Costs, and What Abuja Isn’t Saying
By Aboubakr Kaira Barry, CFA, Managing Director, Results Associates, and Chair, Omou Financial Literacy Center, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
BusinessDay carried a story on August 24 raising fresh questions about the $5 billion Total Return Swap (TRS) the National Assembly approved on March 31, 2026 — a facility now being drawn in tranches. The paper quoted Dele Oye, chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics Ltd/GTE, saying the government needs to be far more transparent about the terms of the deal and how the proceeds are being spent. As of now, Abuja still hasn’t published a term sheet or a breakdown of how the money will be used, even though the first tranche — $1.5 billion — was drawn back in late June.
Based on the documents submitted to the National Assembly, here is how this swap actually works, what risks Nigeria is carrying, and what could still go right.