Nigeria’s petrol consumption declined to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, reflecting reduced demand amid rising fuel prices and worsening economic pressure on households.

Fuel prices have climbed to around ₦1,300 per litre in several regions, significantly increasing transportation costs and business operating expenses. Analysts attribute the decline in consumption to:

•  weakening consumer purchasing power
• rising transport costs and inflation
• growing adoption of energy-saving alternatives
• The trend highlights the continued cost-of-living strain facing Nigerian households and SMEs.

Macroeconomic Stabilization Signals

•  Nigeria’s economy recorded 4.07% year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 2025, up slightly from 3.98% in Q3, driven largely by:

1. telecommunications
2. financialservices
3. agriculture

• Inflation has also shown signs of moderation, declining to 15.10% in January 2026, marking the tenth consecutive monthly decline.
• In response to improving inflation dynamics, the Central Bank of RNeiageria (CBN) reduced the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.50% in February 2026, signaling cautious confidence in economic stabilization.

Currency and External Reserves

1. The naira traded around:

• ₦1,344/$ at the official market
• ₦1,380/$ in the parallel market
• Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves reached approximately
• $34.8 billion by the end of 2025, providing some buffer against external shocks and helping stabilize the currency.

Oil Sector Investment and Production

• Nigeria approved a $20 billion Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Bonga Deepwater oil project, a major offshore investment expected to:
•  increase Nigeria’s long-term oil production capacity
• attract foreign capital inflows
• strengthen offshore exploration activities
• Nigeria’s current crude oil production stands at roughly 1.65 million barrels per day, still below potential due to infrastructure constraints and security risks in the Niger Delta.
• Additionally, Nigeria began exporting a new crude grade, “Cawthorne,” in March 2026, aimed at expanding export streams and improving competitiveness in international energy markets.

Financial Markets & Public Finance

• Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond yields rose to around 7.17–7.43%, reflecting growing investor caution amid global geopolitical tensions.
• The increase in yields is linked to:

1. Middle East conflict risks
2. oil market volatility
3. a global shift toward safer financial assets

• Meanwhile, the Central Bank scheduled a Treasury Bills Primary Market Auction for 11 March 2026, as part of ongoing efforts to manage liquidity and support government short-term financing needs.

Banking Regulation & Compliance

• The Central Bank of Nigeria introduced new baseline automated Anti- Money Laundering (AML) compliance standards for banks and financial institutions.
• The regulation aims to:

1. strengthen financial transparency
2. improve monitoring of suspicious transactions
3. reduce illicit financial flows in Nigeria’s banking system

Fiscal Transparency Reform

The Nigerian government has directed that all oil and gas revenues be remitted directly into the Federation Account, a significant governancereform  aimed at:

1. improving revenue transparency

2. strengthening fiscal accountability

3. reducing leakages in public resource management.

WEST AFRICA ECOWAS Parliament at 25

•  A milestone regional event took place in Abuja on 5 March 2026, when the ECOWAS Parliament convened media, private sector leaders, and regional stakeholders to announce implementation partners supporting its 25th anniversary programme.
• The programme aligns with the “ECOWAS of the People” agenda under the ECOWAS Vision 2050 framework, aimed at strengthening regional integration and citizen engagement.
• The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) participated as a sponsor of the ECOWAS Parliamentary anniversary event, alongside Duchess NL Market Place.
• The initiative highlights the growing role of the private sector in regional development and policy dialogue.

Regional Security Concerns

1. West Africa continues to face security instability linked to extremist insurgencies and cross-border militant networks, particularly within the Lake Chad Basin region.
2. Recent attacks targeting: 1. military installations 2. rural communities. 3. security infrastructure
3. underscore persistent challenges facing regional stability and Reeaconomic development.

AFRICA Commodity Market Dynamics

• Global commodity markets continue to shape Africa’s economic outlook.
• Gold prices surged above $5,100 per ounce in early March 2026, benefiting African producers including: 1. Ghana. 2. South Africa 3. Mali
• Mining firms across the continent reported stronger earnings as investors shifted toward safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical uncertainty.

Infrastructure and Industrialization

• African governments and development banks are prioritizing investments in: 1. cross-border transport corridors 2. renewable energy projects 3. digital infrastructure 4. manufacturing and value-addition industries

• These investments aim to accelerate regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

MIDDLE EAST Strait of Hormuz Energy Crisis

• Rising tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have escalated security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.
• Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait, making disruptions a major threat to global energy markets.
• Recent developments include:

1. attacks on Iranian mine-laying vessels by U.S. forces    
2. declining tanker traffic due to security risks
3. warnings from Saudi Aramco about potential market disruption

• Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel earlier in March, though markets later stabilized around:

1.    Benchmark Price
2. Brent Crude ~$87 per barrel      
3. WTI Crude ~$83 per barrel

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering a coordinated release of up to 182 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to stabilize markets.

• Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could push oil prices above $130 per barrel.

GLOBAL ECONOMY Growth Outlook

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth of approximately 3.3% in 2026, though risks remain elevated due to:

1. geopolitical conflicts
2. energy supply disruptions
3. financial market volatility.

Global Trade Momentum

•  China reported strong trade activity in the first two months of 2026: 1. Exports increased by 21.8%. 2. Imports rose by 19.8%
• This performance signals continued global demand but also highlights vulnerabilities should energy prices spike further.

Safe-Haven Asset Surge

    Gold reached approximately $5,198 per ounce in early March, reflecting strong investor demand for safe-haven assets during geopolitical uncertainty.

ETHICS & GOVERNANCE Civil Society and Global Advocacy

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently commended civil society organizations and women-led advocacy groups for challenging systemic inequalities and promoting social justice worldwide.
• The UN emphasized that strong civil society engagement is essential for accountable governance and sustainable development.

KEY IMPLICATIONS FOR AERE Issue; Strategic Insight

• Rising fuel prices; Increasing inflationary pressure on Nigerian households and small businesses, with potential impacts on transportation costs, consumer spending, and overall economic stability.
• Eurobond market volatility; Signals growing investor caution toward emerging markets, potentially increasing Nigeria’s external borrowing costs and affecting capital inflows.
• Strait of Hormuz conflict; Represents a significant risk to global energy supply chains, with potential to trigger oil price spikes and inflationary pressures worldwide.
• Oil revenue transparency reform; Creates an opportunity to strengthen fiscal accountability and improve governance in Nigeria’s resource management framework.
• ECOWAS Parliament anniversary initiative; Highlights the expanding role of the private sector in advancing regional economic integration and development.

• Commodity price surge; Offers potential revenue gains for African Reeaxport economies, particularly in mining and natural resource sectors.

About the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE:

The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) is a non-profit policy research organization dedicated to evidence-based economic governance, regulatory excellence, and public health protection in Nigeria and Africa. This paper represents the views of the Alliance and calls for

urgent government action based on international best practices and Nigerian legal frameworks.

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