Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 18.02%: Sustaining the Momentum Toward Price Stability and Inclusive Growth.

We welcome the NBS report showing that headline inflation eased to 18.02% in September 2025, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. This moderation is encouraging: it eases pressure on household budgets, helps restore some purchasing power and provides a more favourable backdrop for investment and growth. Nonetheless, 18.02% remains unacceptably high, and persistent structural constraints, notably food supply bottlenecks, infrastructure gaps, and security challenges, mean many households continue to face severe affordability pressures.

To convert this momentum into durable price stability and inclusive growth, policymakers must pursue coordinated monetary and fiscal actions. Priority steps include shifting from a predominantly revenue- focused regulatory stance to one that prioritises trade facilitation, making targeted public and private investments to boost food production and strengthen supply chains, improving public spending efficiency, and expanding well-targeted social safety nets for the most vulnerable. These measures, combined with clear policy communication, will help anchor expectations and support a sustainable decline in inflation.

At the same time, exchange rate developments warrant close attention: on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, the naira slipped 0.39% to close at ₦1,463.23 per dollar, the second consecutive day of losses after a brief reprieve driven by foreign inflows and CBN interventions. Rising global demand for dollars, including a roughly 3% appreciation of the US dollar against a basket of currencies since mid‑September, alongside higher global rates and geopolitical uncertainties, is increasing pressure on emerging‑market currencies like the naira. Policymakers should therefore combine domestic reforms with prudent FX and liquidity management to preserve gains on inflation and maintain investor confidence.

NB: Who we are.

The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) LTDGTE is a Nigerian non-profit working to strengthen both the private and public sectors in Nigeria. It achieves this by conducting independent, evidence-based research, advocating for sensible policies, providing regulatory support for businesses, bringing stakeholders together, and promoting transparent, ethical reforms to improve Nigeria’s “Ease of Doing Business”.

Statement by Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTDGTE.